Yet, Bright Line Watch finds strong partisan divides over election and impeachment.
Both Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly favor politicians who support generous COVID-19 relief spending, yet remain deeply polarized over the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results and former President Donald Trump鈥檚 second impeachment. Meanwhile, political experts find that the former president鈥檚 actions and those taken by congressional supporters in the aftermath of the election represent serious departures from American democratic norms.
Those are among the of Bright Line Watch, the political science research project cofounded by , a professor of political science at the 人妻少妇专区, and her colleagues at the 补苍诲听. The watchdog group started regular surveys about the health of US democracy in February 2017.
Full report
Read Bright Line Watch鈥檚 latest (February 2021) survey, 鈥.”
The team found strong bipartisan support for a new COVID-19 relief package, with Republican voters favoring a hypothetical candidate who supports a $500 billion pandemic appropriation over one who opposes it by 11 points, independents by 12 points, and Democrats by 18 points.
COVID relief has proven to be extremely popular with supporters of both parties, says Bright Line Watch cofounder , a professor of government at Dartmouth College. 鈥淲e鈥檝e seen Democrats and Republicans in Congress at times compete to provide more generous offers of aid and assistance. The public seems to largely agree that the government should provide more help given the economic circumstances Americans currently face.鈥
Meanwhile, the legitimacy of the election result remains a polarizing issue: while 42 percent of Republican public policymakers expressed confidence in the integrity of the election results at the national level, only 22 percent of Republicans in the public sample felt the same way. To Helmke, the public鈥檚 continued partisan view of the election is troubling.
More about Bright Line Watch
Originally founded by the 人妻少妇专区鈥檚听 and three other political scientists鈥斕共曰逄齩f Dartmouth College, 补苍诲听听of the University of Chicago鈥擝right Line Watch is a nonpartisan initiative that conducts regular surveys designed to gauge the overall stability and performance of American democracy.听 鈥97 (PhD), of Rochester-based Meliora Research, is the group鈥檚 director of survey research.
鈥淚n a democracy people basically have to trust that the rules are fair and that if their party or their team loses, the stakes of that loss won’t be intolerable, that in the future they’ll be able to contest an election again, and that they鈥檒l have a chance of winning. That keeps everyone committed to democracy and to playing by the rules,鈥 Helmke says. 鈥淥nce you break that faith鈥攖hat elections actually determine who the winner is鈥攑eople’s allegiance to democracy wanes.鈥
While the latest survey provides a snapshot of the state of democracy in the early days of the new Biden administration, it鈥檚 also a look in the rearview mirror. The found that loyalties and antipathy toward the former president鈥攚hose Senate impeachment trial began immediately after the surveys were conducted鈥攃ontinue to shape the views of citizens and government officials alike.
As a result, the 鈥渃ountry still lives in the shadow of the Trump legacy,鈥 the team writes.
As they had done throughout the project,听the group听fielded two parallel surveys鈥攐ne to political experts and one to a representative sample of the US population鈥攂etween January 28 and February 8.
Among the key findings in the survey of the public:听
- Partisan differences in confidence in the 2020 election and on legal and political accountability for former President Trump are profound. Democrats trust the election, support disqualifying Trump from holding future office, and believe he should face criminal prosecution. Republicans distrust the election results and favor moving on without consequences for Trump. Independents are听split.
- While there is cross-party consensus on government spending on pandemic relief, stark polarization over the certification of the presidential election and impeachment continues, with Republicans punishing Republican candidates for crossing the party line on either issue.
Among the key findings in the survey of political experts:
- The experts overwhelmingly favor a set of reform proposals to expand voting participation, tighten campaign finance regulation, and modify how electoral districts are configured and votes are cast. They also favor abolishing the Senate filibuster and imposing term limits on Supreme Court justices. The only reform the experts reject is compulsory voting.
- Experts rate the January 6 insurrection and President Trump鈥檚 pressure on state-level officials to overturn the election as among the most abnormal and important events of the Trump presidency. They overwhelmingly regard these events and the votes by a majority of Republican lawmakers in Congress not to certify the presidential election results as grave or serious threats to American democracy.
Thinking of secession?
The specter of secession entered into the group鈥檚 battery of questions after legislators at the local and state level started mentioning it publicly. For the first time asked its public sample about the prospect of breaking up the United States into more than one country鈥攁 genuinely radical proposition, the team acknowledges.
鈥淯ntil recently, we would have regarded it as too marginal to include in a survey. But state legislators in听听补苍诲听听and state听GOP听leaders in听听补苍诲听听have openly advocated secession in recent months, prompting us to design two survey items to gauge perceptions of this idea,鈥 they write.
Notably, when presented with a proposal for their region to secede from the United States, almost one in three Americans polled (29 percent) is willing to entertain the prospect.听Republicans (33 percent) support secession more than Democrats (21 percent); but Democrats are more amenable to secession than Republicans in areas where they tend to hold听power.
Yet, the researchers caution against reading too much into that data: the results reflect initial reactions by respondents about an issue that they are very unlikely to have considered carefully, the team cautions.
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